Sunday, October 02, 2005

Analysis of the 2004 Presidential Election Exit Poll Discrepancies

The complete article is posted here:

http://www.gnn.tv/headlines/2172/The_Silent_Scream_of_Numbers
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x356725

Background info on the National Election Reform Conference here:http://www.freepress.org/conf.php
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April 1st - Analysis of the 2004 Presidential Election Exit Poll Discrepancies
The report concludes: “ We believe that the absence of any statistically-plausible explanation for the discrepancy between Edison/Mitofsky’s exit poll data and the official presidential vote tally is an unanswered question of vital national importance that needs thorough investigation.”
Complete report:
http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/Exit_Polls_2004_Edison-Mitofsky.pdf
An executive summary of the report by is available at:

http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/Exit_Polls_summary.pdf

Press release:Scientific Analysis Suggests Presidential Vote Counts May Have Been Altered
“Officially, President Bush won November's election by 2.5%, yet exit polls showed Kerry winning by 3% [1]. According to a report to be released today by a group of university statisticians, the odds of a discrepancy this large between the national exit poll and election results happening by accident are close to 1 in a million.

In other words, by random chance alone, it could not have happened. But it did.”

http://www.uscountvotes.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=85&Itemid=41

Related stories:Group says chance of exit polls being so wrong in '04 vote is one-in-959,000By Stephen Dyer - Beacon Journal staff writer

“There's a one-in-959,000 chance that exit polls could have been so wrong in predicting the outcome of the 2004 presidential election, according to a statistical analysis released Thursday.”
“The explanation for the discrepancy that was offered by the exit polling firm -- that Kerry voters were more likely to participate in the exit polling -- is an ``implausible theory,'' according to the report issued Thursday by US Count Votes, a group that claims it's made up of about two dozen statisticians.”
http://www.ohio.com/mld/ohio/news/11284237.htm

Analysis - Vote Counts May Have Been Altered

“The consortium that conducted the presidential exit polls, Edison/Mitofsky, issued a report in January suggesting that the discrepancy between election results and exit polls occurred because Bush voters were more reticent than Kerry voters in response to pollsters.

The authors of this newly released scientific study "Analysis of the 2004 Presidential Election Poll Discrepancies" considers this "reluctant Bush responder" hypothesis to be highly implausible, based on extensive analysis of Edison/Mitofsky's exit poll data. They conclude, /“The required pattern of exit poll participation by Kerry and Bush voters to satisfy the exit poll data defies empirical experience and common sense under any assumed scenario.”

A state-by-state analysis of the discrepancy between exit polls and official election results shows highly improbable skewing of the election results, overwhelmingly biased towards the President.”
“Ph.D. statisticians in America who have seen this group's preliminary exit poll study have not refuted it. This new study is a much more comprehensive an analysis of the exit poll discrepancies.”

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WO0504/S00001.htm

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